Tag: ‘Congressional Budget Office’

Estimates and the Economy: Let the Buyer Beware

By :: June 24th, 2015

The CBO, the ACA, and the economy: Precision doesn’t mean accuracy. Last Friday, the Congressional Budget Office projected that repeal of the Affordable Care Act would add $137 billion to the national debt over 10 years but boost the economy. But the estimates came with a big warning: “[R]epealing the ACA could in fact reduce […]

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CBO Has No Idea What Repeal of the ACA Means for the Economy or the Deficit

By :: June 23rd, 2015

This is what the Congressional Budget office really said about the budgetary and economic effects of repealing the Affordable Care Act: It has no idea. That, of course, it not what the political partisans are saying in the wake of CBO’s Friday release of a report on this exceedingly controversial topic. Backers of the law […]

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Simplification, Shortfalls and Shifted Assets

By :: March 10th, 2015

Today on the Hill. The Senate Finance Committee examines tax complexity, compliance, and administration with an eye toward simplification in tax reform. Witnesses include Carol Markman of EP Caine & Associates, Mihir Desai of Harvard University, Bruce Bartlett, former deputy assistant secretary for economic policy, and T. Keith Fogg of Villanova University School of Law. […]

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Dynamic Scoring Forum: Three Things You Should Know About Dynamic Scoring

By :: February 27th, 2015

This is one of a series of guest TaxVox blog posts discussing dynamic scoring. The House recently changed the rules of budget scoring: The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation will now account for macroeconomic effects when estimating the budget impacts of major legislation. Here are three things you should know as […]

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Dynamic Scoring Forum:  Dynamic Scoring Won’t Be Perfect But it is Worth Doing

By :: February 20th, 2015

This is one of a series of guest TaxVox blog posts discussing dynamic scoring. It is obvious that changes in spending and tax policies affect macroeconomic variables, such as the Gross Domestic Product. The problem is in knowing how much. Different economic models yield very different answers and even within one model, a single revised […]

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A "Normal" Budget Isn't Really Normal

By :: October 20th, 2014

Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues […]

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Does the Export-Import Bank Make or Lose Money?

By :: September 11th, 2014

Suppose your aunt decides to start a business making pizza ovens. She will design and build the ovens, and her daughter will manage operations. A bank is ready to lend her $100,000 to get started, but it wants someone to co-sign and be on the hook if she misses any payments. She offers to pay […]

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Congress Fiddles While Bridges Crumble

By :: April 14th, 2014

It isn’t news that congressional Democrats and Republicans have agreed to spend the time between now and the November elections messaging, rather than legislating. When it comes to domestic policy it has only two real issues on its must-do list: Deciding the fate of 50+ tax breaks that expired last December and figuring out what […]

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The Cruel Political Paradox of Deficit Reduction

By :: February 4th, 2014

I was chatting the other day with a fellow budget wonk who noted the cruel paradox of fiscal politics: When the economy is bad, deficits rise and the public support for reducing them grows. Yet a poor economy is the worst possible time to raise taxes and cut spending. By contrast, a period of strong growth […]

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Where Are Tax Rates Headed?

By :: December 12th, 2013

Effective tax rates have been rising since 2009 and will continue to rise for a few more years before they flatten out, according to Tax Policy Center projections. My TaxVox post earlier this week showed how average federal tax rates have changed over the past three decades. But that was based on a 30-year history […]

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