Tag: ‘CBO’

Estimates and the Economy: Let the Buyer Beware

By :: June 24th, 2015

The CBO, the ACA, and the economy: Precision doesn’t mean accuracy. Last Friday, the Congressional Budget Office projected that repeal of the Affordable Care Act would add $137 billion to the national debt over 10 years but boost the economy. But the estimates came with a big warning: “[R]epealing the ACA could in fact reduce […]

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Dynamic Scoring Forum: The Dangers of Dynamic Scoring

By :: March 6th, 2015

This is one of a series of TaxVox guest blogs discussing dynamic scoring. One of the strengths of the US budgeting system is that proposals are held accountable through a relatively open process of scoring the costs and benefits.  This process, as run by the Congressional Budget Office and others, looks carefully at the impact […]

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Dynamic Scoring Forum: Three Things You Should Know About Dynamic Scoring

By :: February 27th, 2015

This is one of a series of guest TaxVox blog posts discussing dynamic scoring. The House recently changed the rules of budget scoring: The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation will now account for macroeconomic effects when estimating the budget impacts of major legislation. Here are three things you should know as […]

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Dynamic Scoring Forum: Now We Really Need More Information

By :: February 25th, 2015

This is one of a series of guest TaxVox blog posts discussing dynamic scoring House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan has claimed that the House dynamic scoring rule would generate more information.  But the new rule asks for an official cost estimate that reflects only a single estimate of a bill’s supposed impact […]

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Dynamic Scoring Forum:  Dynamic Scoring Won’t Be Perfect But it is Worth Doing

By :: February 20th, 2015

This is one of a series of guest TaxVox blog posts discussing dynamic scoring. It is obvious that changes in spending and tax policies affect macroeconomic variables, such as the Gross Domestic Product. The problem is in knowing how much. Different economic models yield very different answers and even within one model, a single revised […]

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Tax Vox Will Host an Online Policy Forum on Dynamic Scoring

By :: February 19th, 2015

The House vote to require the Congressional Budget Office and the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation to include macroeconomic effects in some official budget scores is enormously controversial in the policy world and among economists. To help unpack this complex issue, Tax Vox has asked several budget and tax experts to present their views on this process, known as dynamic […]

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New Evidence on Our Fiscal Status

By :: January 27th, 2015

CBO’s  new budget projections are an opportunity to take stock of the country’s fiscal situation. At the risk of oversimplifying, the report contains one piece of good news, and two of bad news.  The bottom line: The sky is not falling but policymakers have fallen short of solving the long-term fiscal problem. The good news […]

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House GOP Leadership Would Require Dynamic Scoring of Some Tax Bills. Will It Matter?

By :: December 24th, 2014

Last night, the House Republican leadership proposed new rules that would require the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office to incorporate macroeconomic effects of “major” legislation into their official budget estimates. But there may be less to these new rules for so-called “dynamic scoring” than meets the eye. The GOP did not […]

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A "Normal" Budget Isn't Really Normal

By :: October 20th, 2014

Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of the past four decades. Tax revenues […]

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Taxes and Spending Return To “Normal”-- But Not For Long

By :: October 16th, 2014

Yesterday, the Treasury Department reported that the deficit for Fiscal Year 2014, which ended on Sept. 30, fell to $483 billion, or about 2.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product. This being Washington, the report was hailed as either an enormous success or dismissed as meaningless.  Who is right? Is it good news or bad news? […]

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