Re: Baseline Redux: or When is a Tax Cut Not a Tax Cut?
by Anonymous
I'm a believer in 3 or 4 baselines, with various assumptions about current law, inflation and policy. In an online world, they could be put in a spreadsheet and sent. Not having to print them is an advantage. The last baseline would be based on the President's budget. (if the macro targets were enacted, how would current law be adjusted without action by the appropriations comittees). There would be an additional baseline calculation after the passage and signing of a Joint Budget Resolution. The totals would come from the JBR and the line items under current law would be adjusted to match - and would become law barring action by the political process. This would end the drama of continuing resolutions at the end of the year and give Congress an incentive to get its work done. This is useless for tax policy, however you can do the same kind of multiple baseline exercise with current law, the current budget and current policy (whatever that is). The confusion on this issue will actually be quite short-lived, since Congress must do something in the next few years to change the baseline consensus or currnet law will do it for them.
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