Whatever its ultimate fate, the $700 billion financial market bailout has me thinking about how events of the past few months have fundamentally changed the nature of economic risk in the U.S. And, that, in turn, raises some interesting questions about capital gains taxes.    more »

On Friday morning, I am going to moderate what promises to be an enlightening discussion of the spending plans of the major Presidential candidates. Panelists will be Rudy Penner of The Urban Institute, Jim Horney of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, and Bill Hoagland of CIGNA (and formerly the top budget guru for ex-Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist).   more »

We had fun ridiculing the idea of suspending the gasoline tax for the summer, but the gas tax holiday was minor mischief compared with the newest idea for dealing with the financial market meltdown: a two year holiday on capital gains taxes.    more »

Earlier this week, both the House and Senate passed measures establishing generous tax credits for electric plug-in cars. The Senate plan gives consumers a credit of up to $7,500 for the purchase of a plug-in car, while the House plan offers consumers a credit of up to $5,000. Under both plans, the value of the credit increases with the battery capacity of the vehicle, meaning that more efficient cars receive larger tax credits.   more »

In a previous post, Len Burman reported that a substantial portion of Senator Obama’s non-health tax proposals would be provided as net refunds, over and above income tax liability. This is a key difference from Senator McCain, whose proposals would mostly benefit taxpayers (and mostly those with high incomes).    more »

Barack Obama and John McCain are slowly beginning to get it: For the next President, this week’s financial market meltdown has changed everything. Suddenly, their grandiose promises of new tax cuts and ambitious spending are sounding more hollow than ever. An $11.3 trillion national debt will do that to you every time.    more »

The Bush Administration has asked Congress to write the biggest blank check in the history of the planet. And Congress may very well do it. The Administration’s proposal requires only semi-annual reports to congressional committees and explicitly exempts any bailout-related actions from judicial review. This has a whiff of the war on terror about it. “We are in a crisis,” the Administration cries, “and you must act now. Do not stop and think. Do not amend. Just approve what we say or we will blame you for what happens next.”    more »

Crumbling financial markets mean more awful news for governments already reeling from an economic slowdown and mortgage foreclosures. The only glimmer of optimism is that the sluggish revenues and rising spending that are around the corner should only be transitory. Assuming the markets and the economy rebound, these fiscal shocks will be a fading memory after a few years.

That won’t relieve short-term budget pressures. Nor will it make life any easier for a newly-elected President who will take office in the face of a deficit that CBO projected at nearly half a trillion dollars even before the markets cratered this week. But there is a big difference between the kind of one-time budget shocks caused by crashing financial markets and the trillions in long-term unfunded obligations that Washington is happily ignoring. That slow wasting of the nation’s financial underpinnings doesn’t grab headlines, but is far more dangerous.

If the current market correction ends up looking more or less like our last three big financial hiccups in 1987, 1990, and 2001-2003, capital gains tax collections will plunge for a year or two, but then bounce back.

After the market’s crash in 1987, these revenues fell 19 percent in 1988, flat-lined for a year, and then, as the stock market sagged again, dropped another 27 percent by 1991. However, through the rest of the 1990’s, capital gains taxes grew strongly as the market boomed. By 2000, Washington was collecting more than $120 billion in capital gains taxes, nearly four times what it got a decade before.

The pattern held after the tech bubble burst in 2001. Taxes on gains plunged by 59 percent through 2003, but then, with the market, they recovered. By 2005, revenues had climbed 50 percent, even though the top rate on gains had been cut to 15 percent.

Some states did not fare so well. California saw taxes on capital gains and stock options plunge by nearly $10 billion after the dot.com bust. And while those revenues have rebounded, the state has never quite gotten back on its fiscal feet.

Of course, some things are different this time, even for Washington. Thanks to the government’s unprecedented bailouts of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, and now AIG, Washington is on the hook for tens of billions and perhaps hundreds of billions more in spending that nobody foresaw even a couple of months ago.

It is not possible to put a dollar amount on those new obligations, which is very frightening. If the government ends up nationalizing more failing firms, the fiscal cost could become far more worrisome. But like spending for natural disasters, these bailouts are likely to be one-off expenditures. The government, thankfully, can buy AIG’s toxic assets only once.

Don’t get me wrong. This is all a very, very bad business. But unlike the future prospects for, say Medicare, this grim news has the potential to improve fairly soon.

Just when we thought the bailouts were over, just when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson insisted failing financial institutions would, like Lehman Brothers, sink or swim on their own, along comes AIG. Make no mistake, the Wall Street financiers called Bernanke and Paulson’s bluff. After the two men said Washington would not throw taxpayer money into the AIG pot, the big money guys went all in, insisting they would not rescue the rapidly-sinking financial services giant without cash from Washington.    more »

In January, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the federal budget would maintain rough fiscal balance over the coming decade. Last week, CBO updated that forecast and found that the government would run a cumulative $2.3 trillion deficit. That sharp change reflected a slowing economy and rapid spending growth.   more »

Should clergy have the right to stand up in their tax-exempt pulpits and endorse political candidates? For a half century, the answer has been no. But The Washington Post's Peter Slevin reported on Sept. 8 that a conservative group called the Alliance Defense Fund wants to change that.    more »

The deficit is about to get a lot worse, a lot faster. At least that's the latest projection by the Congressional Budget Office. In the past six months, Washington's medium-term fiscal health has deteriorated markedly, and what CBO once projected to be a small surplus beginning in 2012 has now morphed into annual deficits in excess of $100 billion as far as the eye can see (to borrow a phrase).    more »

I was, to say the least, surprised to read a couple of comments posted last week that claimed FactCheck.org was asserting Barack Obama’s tax-and-spending plans would pay for themselves. I was even more surprised to read that FactCheck was supposedly basing its conclusions on TPC data. So, I looked it up.   more »

Listening to John McCain's acceptance speech last night, I found myself asking the question that others have been asking me for the past year: Who is John McCain really? Is he the McCain of 2000-2003, who blasted both wasteful government spending and the unaffordable Bush tax cuts? Or the McCain of 2008, who not only wants to extend President Bush's tax cuts but expand them without coming close to paying for this largess? Is he the supporter of limiting offshore oil drilling and requiring tradable credits for carbon-based fuels--which would sharply raise the price of oil and gasoline? Or is he the new darling of the "drill baby drill" crowd?    more »

When it comes to taxes, Sarah Palin turns out to be an intriguing mix of Barack Obama and John McCain. Like Obama, she favors a tax rebate for consumers funded by a windfall profits tax on energy companies. But, like McCain, she also backs a gas tax holiday.    more »