Much of the reaction to the April 16 Democratic Presidential debate was directed at the moderators for focusing on character and perception rather than policy. But issues got mangled as well—not only by the candidates, but by moderator Charles Gibson. While questioning Barack Obama about his proposal to raise the capital gains tax, Gibson claimed that when the rate has been cut, government took in more money, but when the tax was increased revenue fell. Although this argument warms the hearts of the Wall Street Journal editorial page, the implication that capital gains tax rate cuts raise revenues is not supported by the evidence.    more »

Props to Barack Obama for resisting the siren call for a summer gas tax holiday. In contrast, Hillary Clinton has clambered aboard John McCain’s free-lunch bandwagon, vowing to support the gas tax cut he first proposed a couple of weeks ago. Even worse, she’s now tied it to an energy company windfall profits tax so, as she says, oil companies would “pay their fair share to help us solve the problems at the pump.”   more »

There are few things more frustrating in life than being a budget hawk. You spend your days predicting dire consequences that never quite come to pass, trying to convince voters that their government can’t keep expanding popular programs without paying for them, and hectoring politicians into making votes that would be political suicide. Like Cassandra of Greek myth, you have the ability to foretell the future, but suffer the curse of being unable to change it.   more »

While most observers are focused on John McCain’s proposed summer gas tax holiday, they have missed a much bigger idea from GOP’s likely presidential nominee: A massive tax reform—but one that, at least as it stands now, would be a huge windfall for business.   more »

On April 17, the Tax Policy Center posted “Scoring McCain’s Tax Proposals”. Although I remain a fan of efforts by organizations like the Tax Policy Center to analyze taxation issues, the analysis is misleading on the whole and wrong in some particulars.   more »

In their debate last night, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama wandered deep into George H.W. Bush land by pledging never to raise taxes on “middle-income” taxpayers making less than $250,000.   more »

Senator McCain wants to make government much, much smaller. His specifics on how are sketchy—eliminate earmarks, programs that don’t work, waste… But his tax day speech gives us an idea of how much he wants to shrink the government. A lot. And even more than when we last blogged on the subject back in February.   more »

Senator McCain proposed today to suspend the 18.4 cents per gallon federal excise tax on gasoline between Memorial Day and Labor Day this year. For a moment, forget about whether encouraging fossil fuel burning makes sense during a time of global warming, whether we should raid the highway trust fund when bridges are collapsing for lack of maintenance, or the disconnect between the proposal to cut gasoline taxes and the candidates’ endorsement of “cap-and-trade” limits that would raise gasoline prices.    more »

To celebrate April 15, TPC director Len Burman argued yesterday on TaxVox that today’s income tax “is not all bad” and that “we could do a lot worse.” Well, it may not be all bad, but it is pretty awful. And while we could do worse, we could also do a lot better.   more »

Like most Americans, I hate preparing my income tax return. And, as a tax policy expert, I know that our current tax system is deeply flawed. But it's not all bad. It raises a lot of revenue ($1.1 trillion in 2007) and, like it or not, we have to pay for government. Income taxes are also progressive, raising the lion's share from those most able to pay, and little or nothing from those at the bottom. Sure, we could and should make it simpler and fairer, but we could also do a lot worse.

The financial burden of the income tax on most people is pretty bearable. Most taxpayers pay more in payroll (FICA) taxes than in income taxes. For example, the median income of married couples in 2007 was about $74,000. (That is, half of couples earned more and half less.) Their average income tax bill was $3,400, or less than five percent of income. The median-income single taxpayer earned $22,500) and paid about $610, or three percent.

The income tax also helps millions of working families at the bottom. The earned income tax credit (EITC) augments the meager wages of low earners and encourages them to work. Indeed, the EITC lifts millions of children out of poverty.

People with high incomes paid a lot more. The top 40 percent pay most of the income tax. The top 10 percent pays 72 percent. That seems like a lot, but they earn nearly half of all income. Their income tax amounts to about 16 percent of income.

They should pay even more—their incomes have exploded while middle-income households have struggled to get ahead, and they have gotten huge tax cuts since 2001. But, even after the tax cuts, the income tax is highly progressive.

That said, there are huge flaws in the income tax.  Some high-income people pay peanuts in tax because of gaping loopholes. Meanwhile, middle- and even low-income people are so daunted by the unnecessary complexity that most pay professional preparers to fill out their tax returns.

The income tax needs fixing and proposals for doing just that are abundant. But there are also proposals—well funded by millionaires who think they're over-taxed—that would jettison the income tax in favor of a supposedly simpler system.

The so-called “Fair Tax,” famously embraced by Governor Huckabee in his run for the White House, would replace the income tax with a national sales tax. Its proponents argue that just about everyone would pay lower taxes under this system, apparently assuming that most Americans are not bright enough to figure out that this means that the tax would not raise anywhere near enough money to finance the government. In fact, at rates high enough to pay for the government—at least 34 percent, according to President Bush's tax reform panel—it would represent a huge tax increase on the middle class and (surprise) a huge tax cut for millionaires (who spend only a fraction of their incomes).

The flat tax, Steve Forbes's crusade, would similarly bestow massive tax cuts on the wealthy. Fred Thompson proposed allowing people the option of paying tax under a simpler alternative tax system. People would only make that choice if it meant lower taxes, and the people who'd get the biggest tax cuts would be the millionaires. This bit of fiscal magic would add $6 trillion to our burgeoning national debt over the next 10 years.

Senator McCain's proposal, which his campaign admits is a first step toward a consumption tax, would do nearly as much damage to fiscal finances as Senator Thompson's tax giveaway.

Ironically, the Democratic candidates would unwittingly provide ammunition for the income tax bashers by adding a raft of new credits and deductions. Those breaks may make great sound bites on the campaign trail, but they'd make the income tax more complicated and contribute to the perception that it is unfair.

The solution is not to ditch the income tax, but to fix it. Rein in the propensity of politicians of both parties to use it to grant favors to particular constituencies. And make sure it raises enough revenue to pay our bills so we don't bequeath bigger tax headaches to our children.

The Washington pols who are pushing housing legislation should meet my friends Steve and Laura. They are a 30-something couple with a two-year old daughter, and they have been waiting for years to buy a house.   more »

I spent about 90 minutes this afternoon interviewing John McCain's chief economic adviser, Doug Holtz-Eakin. He laid out what would be a powerfully ambitious domestic agenda for a President McCain, including big upfront initiatives on climate change and Social Security reform. But he also set the stage for what would be an existential battle between the parties over taxes and spending.   more »

Why is it that the biggest problems always seem to encourage the worst possible solutions? The latest case in point: The Senate's housing bill, grandly titled "The Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008."   more »

What to make of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's plan to rewrite regulation of the financial services industry?   more »