
Compared with current law, almost everyone would get a tax cut in 2012 from the budget’s tax plan, as Howard Gleckman explained here on Tuesday. On average, households in each of the first four quintiles (or fifths) of the income distribution would see their after-tax income rise by between 4 and 5 percent; even those in the top quintile would get a 3-percent income bump. That’s not a lot of wealth sharing: a little shifts to lower-income households because Obama proposes to make refundable tax credits permanent, but the cuts run across the board.

I can already hear some of you objecting that I’ve biased my findings by measuring the budget proposals against current law, which includes a big tax increase after 2010 when most of the past decade’s tax cuts would sunset. Howard blogged on the choice of baseline earlier this week and subsequent comments churned through the alternatives. Next week, I’ll show you the graphs depicting how the tax changes stack up against the administration’s baseline—extend the Bush tax cuts, fix the estate tax at 2009 levels, and permanently patch the AMT (all for the tidy little cost of $3.2 trillion from 2009 through 2019). If you want to peek at the results sooner, you’ll find the relevant table on our website.
Suffice it to say for now that the tax proposals in President Obama’s 2010 budget are far from the massive redistribution of income we heard so much about during last year’s campaign.


