The stimulus bill before the Senate would exempt from income tax the first $2,400 of unemployment compensation that people receive in 2009. Because the exclusion reduces their taxable income, higher bracket taxpayers get a bigger break than those with lower incomes. And very low-income households that have no tax liability would get no benefit at all.   more »

I am beginning to understand why the stimulus plan is so bloated with stuff that is so obviously not stimulus. It was designed backwards. Congress and President Obama could have identified a list of those proposals that are both timely and targeted, figured out what they would cost, and assembled them into a stimulus measure. Instead, they are doing what Washington always does with big bills such as this: They first invented, out of whole cloth, a number for the size of the stimulus. Having capped the price at a roughly a trillion dollars, they are now horse trading to choose the individual tax cuts and spending to fit that pre-arranged cost target. As my colleague Bill Gale puts it, first they built the bucket, now they are trying to fill it.    more »

The stimulus bill working its way through Congress would make both the child tax credit (CTC) and the earned income tax credit (EITC) available to more low-income workers. The CTC would phase in at lower income levels for the poorest working families, raising after-tax income for the neediest and most likely encouraging them to spend additional income. The EITC would increase for larger families, also giving more cash to families likely to spend quickly.   more »

This will surprise nobody who follows what is optimistically called the budget process, but the economic stimulus package wending its way through Congress has become the vehicle for an astonishing array of stuff. It’s become even better than emergency supplemental appropriations, which have been used to fund decidedly predictable items, like the decennial census and continuing outlays for the Iraq war (long after the initial shock and awe had worn off).   more »

Washington has kicked off a perfectly predictable donnybrook over stimulus. Democrats, who spent the past eight years bashing George Bush for turning a Clinton-era surplus into a big deficit, are now defending what will be nearly $1 trillion in new tax cuts and spending. Republicans, who presided over decades of deficits, suddenly are worried about the debt we are leaving to our grandchildren.   more »

My TPC colleagues—most having taught at some point in their careers—couldn’t resist. They’ve given grades to the major tax provisions of the stimulus bill now working its way through Congress. While you can argue over the specific grades (and we surely did), the benefit of this exercise is that it forces you to look at the relative value of each of the elements of the plan. For a first pass, TPC graded the Ways & Means bill, and concluded that the best proposals of the bunch are those that give temporary tax relief to low-income families. It makes sense, since they are the most likely to spend the money they receive. As I noted in a recent post, even these are far from perfect, but they should help to get the struggling economy get back on its feet.    more »

How much will the $300 billion in tax cuts approved today by the House Ways & Means Committee really stimulate the economy? They will help some, but don’t expect them to accomplish a lot. I’d give the overall plan a Gentleman’s C. Some provisions would channel money to low-income people most likely to spend it, but deliver the cash too slowly. Others distribute the funds relatively quickly, but give an awful lot to wealthier taxpayers who are least likely to spend it.    more »

The stimulus plan unveiled by House Democrats today includes a little something for everyone. With an eye-popping price tag of $825 billion, I suppose it should. The plan, written in close consultation with the incoming Obama Administration, includes $275 billion in business and individual tax cuts, and $550 billion in direct spending for everything from smart appliances to repairing hiking trails in national parks. A huge chunk—roughly half—would be direct assistance to state and local governments.    more »

Policy makers are rightly focused on boosting demand as a way to pull us out of the current recession. The proposals offered so far will help, but none directly target the price of goods and services that people buy and all will add to our alarming budget deficits. So here’s a simple suggestion. Why don’t we promise future price increases so consumers will have an incentive to spend more now. Enact a value-added tax (VAT) that phases in starting in 2010. (A VAT, common throughout the rest of the world, is basically a sales tax that is collected in stages from producers and retailers.) If the VAT started at a 5-percent rate, that would push retail prices up by 5 percent (assuming the Fed lets the money supply grow), providing an incentive for consumers to make purchases in 2009 rather than postpone them.    more »

Barack Obama is channeling Ronald Reagan. Not in policy (his proposed tax cuts are not that big) but in tactics. The question is: Can the president-elect convince Congress to spend well over $1 trillion without leaving any fingerprints. Having learned from Reagan’s legislative successes—notably the Tax Reform Act of 1986—and from Bill Clinton’s failures—see health reform—it appears Obama will never propose any specific economic stimulus legislation. Instead, he is merely sending Congress ideas, and leaving the dirty work of writing a proposal to the Hill. The New York Times Jackie Calmes did a nice post on this the other day.    more »

Good to see comments on the New Jobs Tax Credit from two authors of papers on the subject, Timothy J. Bartik of the Upjohn Institute and John H. Bishop of Cornell. In response to my criticism of Barack Obama’s call for an employer credit to encourage hiring, both argue that the Carter-era version of this idea—the 1977-78 New Jobs Tax Credit—succeeded in creating as many as 700,000 new jobs in the first year.    more »

The soon-to-be Obama Administration floated quite a trial balloon over the weekend: $300 billion in tax cuts for workers and business over the next couple of years. When you get past the eye-popping number, perhaps the most striking element is how conventional most of the ideas are. For individuals, they’d include some version of Obama’s Making Work Pay Credit, a refundable tax credit (aka cash payment) for everyone making roughly $200,000 or less. Obama aides did not say how this money would be distributed, although they hinted they’d try something other than the rebates that the Bush White House turned to three times over the past eight years. One idea: reduced withholding, which would release the funds more slowly than a lump-sum payment would.    more »

I’ve been reading up on the Great Depression (never say those of us at TPC don’t know how to have fun) and am struck by one overriding thought: Even with the benefit of 80 years of hindsight, economists still can’t agree on either what went wrong or how the economy got back on track. There is an important lesson here. Famously impatient, Americans not only expect government to fix today’s economic crisis, they demand it. Barack Obama, I suspect, will have about a year to turn things around before the public turns on him. Yet, if we still don’t know what happened in 1929, how can we expect policymakers to truly understand—and correctly address—events happening in real time today?    more »

TPC’s Len Burman has come up with an interesting stimulus idea: “Send everyone with a Social Security number a prepaid card, like the ones offered by major credit-card companies. The money could be spent at any retailer that accepted the company’s credit cards. In principle, the card would be the same as cash, and might still allow consumers to save more. In practice, we know from behavioral economics that labeling matters. If people get a card that they can only use if they spend the money, their spending is likely to increase more than if they can bank a rebate check.” Here is his entire post at Economix.    more »

Barack Obama has set quite a goal for himself: He wants a fiscal stimulus that will both boost today's economy and lay the groundwork for "long-term sustained… growth." Doing both will not be easy. In fact, it may not be possible. So which is more important?    more »