The Non-Jobs Bill
Congress' effort to pass a jobs bill stalled in the Senate on Wednesday. In part, the upper chamber tied itself into Senate-like knots thanks to the usual partisan wrangling. But the proposal has also rekindled a debate over the need for more economic stimulus versus fear of rising deficits. This argument is important and healthy, but wildly overblown in the context of such a small and poorly-targeted bill.
In one corner are those liberals who argue that failure to pass this measure will send the economy spiraling into a catastrophic double-dip recession. This, they say, is what happened in the mid-1930s, when Congress tightened fiscal policy and a nascent post-Depression expansion collapsed. Don’t worry about deficits, the progressives say. There is no inflation. Treasury bond rates are at historic lows. Create jobs and stabilize the recovery, and the budget will take care of itself.
By contrast, fiscal hawks say this bill, on top of President Obama’s earlier $862 billion stimulus, is the last straw. We cannot continue to spend money we do not have without turning ourselves into Greece. And while Treasury rates may be low now, the day may come when investors lose their enthusiasm for our bonds. The economy, they say, has grown smartly for three consecutive quarters and there is no need to make an already $1.4 trillion deficit any worse.
So we invent the following bumper-sticker debate: Oppose this stimulus and you are a jobs-killing, tea party-loving, myopic deficit hawk. Support it and you are an irresponsible big spender. Both claims are fairly silly. Here’s why:
First, the bill's short-term $80 billion price tag is loose change, at least by Washington standards. It is one-tenth the size of Obama’s 2009 stimulus. And in a $14 trillion economy, its impact on the overall economy is hardly measurable. Similarly, adding another $80 billion in one-time initiatives (assuming they are one-time) to a $1.4 trillion deficit is hardly going to waken a complacent bond market.
But the argument over the total cost completely misses the real question: Will the subsidies and incentives in this bill create jobs? It is not the size that matters, but how the dollars are spent. And here, there is a strong case to be made that a lot of this bill is money wasted.
Start with the roughly $32 billion in expiring tax provisions (aka the extenders) that the bill would continue for another year (or in a few cases two). Some of my favorites: $46 million in tax subsidies for movie producers and $38 million for NASCAR racetrack owners. As I have written in the past, most of these highly targeted subsidies will do little or nothing to create new jobs. They will, however, provide a financial windfall to their recipients. The other day, Bob Bixby of the Concord Coalition had a suggestion: Kill the Extenders. That's not a bad idea.
The bill also would spend about $6 billion to delay a big cut in Medicare physician payments for another six months. Congress had been putting off the day of reckoning on this issue for 13 years. Yes, 13 years. Cutting doctors’ pay by 21 percent (which would happen in the absence of this bill) is absurd. But kicking this can down the road yet again has nothing at all to do with boosting the economy.
A handful of proposals may create–or at least save–some jobs. For instance, a measure to help states pay teachers (which may or many not end up in the final bill) would prevent some layoffs, although how many is a matter of great dispute. But most provisions could die, or be paid for, without doing any damage to the economy. It is fair to debate whether the economy needs another fiscal jolt. But for better or worse you won’t find much real stimulus in this bill.
Paying for a doctor fix, the medical needs of the baby boomers, the need to provide affordable medical coverage to people on COBRA and the need to provide for extended unemployment insurance all have a ready made answer, although many will find it distateful. These are all from funds that were designed to be self-supporting originally. Expansions of these programs or merely making them cost effective must ultimately be funded by raising their dedicated revenue streams – however we need not do so in advance of need. We can drop the requirement that the Medicare trust fund maintain some type of long term balance that must be pre-funded. It would be better to allow the tax rate to be raised automatically than to mandate budget cuts instead – or perhaps we can mandate a mix of both unless Congress acts.
In the short term, deficit finance is necessary – however in the long term, subsidizing COBRA, funding doctor fees adequately, providing for longer term unemployment and for Medicare Part D is best done with payroll tax hikes. Indeed, in the area of unemployment – a higher tax rate may have employers think again before assuming that laying people off is in their best interests. The whole point of the tax was to add a little bit of pain to the decision to reduce payrolls to save money. Perhaps this is just the time to make that pain increase.
Sending money to the states to cover their shortfalls is absolutely essential, especially this week. Cuts at the state level could trigger a double-dip.
Stimulus or TARP money should also be used to hurry up the program that lets people write down their mortgage balances. State housing agencies, like the one who holds my underwater mortgage, likely won't be able to do this quickly without such an infusion (if at all). Allowing people to take this hit now will allow some people to move on to where they can find better jobs – or even allow them to step up to a better house that won't be underwater. This would prevent the double dip that has everyone so afraid. Indeed, the fear of a double dip may cause the double dip as people hold onto their money.
When it comes to fiscal austerity deficit cutting by entitlement reforms and tax cutting are not sure paths to a deeper recession.
You can take Sweden's example in the 90s when they had its banking crises, far worse than the US crisis. All Swedish banks were insolvent. They went from a deficit of 13 % to a surplus of 3 % in 5 years.
Or you could go to Estonia of today. They resolved the crisis in 2 years 2008-10. They both did the same. Both Sweden and Estonia are the only 2 countries in the EU that are within the EU convergence demands. It is a result of sound fiscal policies, fiscal austerity and entitlement reform (in Sweden's case Social Security old age benefits are automatically cut if certain economic criteria is met, fully funded and semi-privatized.)
The US should take a good and hard look upon how the Swedes and the Estonians managed it.