How a Jobs-Creating, Loophole-Closing Tax Bill Does Little of Either
I wasn’t going to write about Congress’ latest effort to continue scores of soon-to-expire special interest tax breaks. But there is something about the joint Ways & Means/ Senate Finance Committee bill’s Orwellian title: “The American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act” (AJACTLA) that makes it impossible to ignore.
It isn’t just the fingernails-on-the-blackboard grammar that drives me crazy. It’s the idea that a bill that would do so little to create jobs or close loopholes—and would in reality continue so many special interest tax breaks—would be so hideously mislabeled. The bill would extend, count ‘em, 70 expiring subsidies at a cost of $28.5 billion over the next two years. There is little or no evidence that any of these goodies have ever created jobs, and thus it is unreasonable to believe they will produce any in the future—or that their long-postponed deaths would cost jobs.
To be sure, the bill includes many other proposals, including yet another delay in a scheduled Medicare payment cut for doctors and another $24 billion in extra federal Medicaid assistance to states. But to keep it simple, let's focus on the expiring tax breaks.
It is, for instance, hard to see how continuing to allow generous tax depreciation for NASCAR racetracks will create many jobs. It is easier, however, to imagine how this will continue a windfall for the track owners. It is similarly hard to see how the national economy benefits from special tax-exempt bonds for investments in New York City’s “liberty zone.” Good for developers and contractors doing work in lower Manhattan, as well as investment bankers and bond lawyers. Not so good for developers trying to build projects just outside the specially-designated zone.
A word about the cost of all this: The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that extending the expiring provisions would reduce federal revenues by $32.5 billion over 10 years. But keep in mind these tax subsidies would all expire—on paper at least—over just a year or two. A more accurate 10-year estimate of the revenue loss (assuming the tax breaks eventually are continued throughout the decade) would likely approach $200 billion.
Lawmakers get some credit for at least nodding to the idea of having to pay for extending these tax breaks. This is a change, especially for the Finance Committee that until now has rejected even this modest bit of fiscal responsibility out of hand. Most of the revenue-raising proposals fall into three categories: Investment fund managers would have to pay tax at ordinary income rates, rather than capital gains rates, for income they receive as carried interest; self-employed people would no longer be able to avoid Social Security and Medicare taxes by routing income through S corporations; and U.S. corporations would lose some tax breaks on income they earn overseas.
But while nearly all of the cost of extending the 70 expiring provisions occurs in 2010 and 2011, 90 percent of the revenue to pay for these goodies would not be collected until 2012 and beyond. It isn’t hard to imagine that much of this money will never materialize, either because the law will be changed or because very smart lawyers will figure ways around it. The overall bill, including the new spending, would add about $140 billion to the deficit.
It is hard to be too cynical about tax extenders that have reached a state of near-immortality. But the least Congress could do is to call this annual rite what it is: Continuing tax loopholes, not closing them.
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Why would any job loss occur? Employers write the check for the entire tax now and they will in the future. If gross pay goes down, but not net, it means that what you think you are making is more in line with take home pay. Call it truth in payroll. No one has “made” their gross salary for almost 80 years, unless they work off the books. Most people know that when they bargain for salary.
Right now, if I make $100 a day, my true compensation is really $107.65, if you consider the “payroll” cost of my employment. It would still be that if the employer pays the entire $15.30 in payroll taxes and $10 in income tax one would expect for the days work, making my net/gross pay $82.35, instead of having a gross of $100 and a net of $82.35.
The size of the check the employer has to file does not change. Neither does his or her reporting responsibility. What does change is the illusion I am making or am somehow entitled to the full $100 and the responsibility to do paperwork on April 15th.
Of course, there are many ways of doing this. For example, you could retain collection of payroll taxes for retirement/survivors but not disability/hospital insurance. You could also offset some of the change by including a VAT of 5%, with another 5% part of the business income tax. In that case, I would be getting $92.35 net, $97.35 gross and pay 5% higher prices to account for the VAT.
“Medicare extenders should be made permanent and funded with an increase in the payroll tax, possibly after shifting the entire burden to employers and decreasing gross, but not net pay.” Huh? Maybe I am misreading this, but there is no such thing as shifting the burden to employers and it not affecting net pay. Unless you consider job losses as not affecting net pay.
Such extenders will always be with us unless the people who don't get them are seen to pay more.
Of course, there are two or three extenders that should only be paid for with certain dedictated taxes. Medicare extenders should be made permanent and funded with an increase in the payroll tax, possibly after shifting the entire burden to employers and decreasing gross, but not net pay. UI taxes should also be increased to fund extended unemployment and any Republican Senators called out as hypocrites for opposing paying for them, as they have been grandstanding to so. Senior Medicaid should be dropped as a state responsibility entirely and be transitioned into Medicare and funded through a further expansion of the (now-employer only) HI tax.
One profound way to get rid of industry tax breaks is to transition to a more complete business income tax which replaces non-pension payroll and low rate personal income taxes. Little tax perks would be harder to justify with this big infusion – especially if the tax became a vehicle for other breaks, like the child tax credit – which would be paid before any others. Indeed, in its purest and intergovernmental form, the business income tax would be designed to replace most public spending, with industry specific breaks only kicking in if there is tax liability after the general health, family support and educational benefits have all been exhausted.
Favored industries actually pay quite a bit in taxes, if you consider the personal income and payroll taxes which they collect from their employees to be part of the picture.