Budget watchers Alan Auerbach and Bill Gale have just finished a new paper on the nation’s long-term fiscal future. I’ll get to the numbers in a second, but their conclusion could hardly be more grim: “The federal fiscal outlook is both bleak and uncertain.”
And if that doesn’t get your attention, try this: Auerbach and Gale note a “discernable uptick” late last year in market fears of default in 5-Year Treasury notes. Have a nice day.

co-authored with Mark Greenberg, Georgetown Center on Poverty, Inequality, and Public Policy
During the Presidential campaign, Barack Obama talked about the Making Work Pay tax credit as being an offset to the payroll tax on the first $8,100 of earnings for each worker (6.2% * $8,100 = about $500). During the campaign, Tax Policy Center analyzed the credit in the context of individual earnings – even in the case of married couples. If only one partner worked, we assumed the maximum credit for the couple was $500 and if two partners worked, TPC assumed the maximum credit increased to $1,000.
Not so, as it turns out.